A Pair Of Milestones, Almost
In the first game of the double header David Wright hit the 100 RBI mark for the fifth time in his career (in just six seasons), extending his franchise record. No other Met has more than three 100 RBI seasons.
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Wright’s numbers for the season 285/28/100 are close to his career average of 305/26/104, so before you say he is having a down season, make sure you recognize his situation this season. Yes, his strikeouts are way up and 2010 is the first time he hits under 300, but who has he had hitting behind him all season? A rookie first baseman? How much protection is there in that? Why would anyone pitch to the lone offensive star in a lineup with a rookie behind him?
Next season Wright will assault the franchise record book in earnest, scratching out long held records.
Right now, he is already the franchise leader in doubles. With an average season in 2011 he will take over the Mets lead in Total Bases (Ed Kranepool 2047, David Wright 1941); RBIs (Darryl Strawberry 733, Wright 661); Runs (Strawberry 662, Wright 637) and Sac Flies (Kranepool 58, Wright 50).
In two seasons he should also take over the franchise lead in Hits (Kranepool 1418, Wright 1147), Base On Balls (Strawberry 580, Wright 482) and Strikeouts (Strawberry 980, Wright 798). The only major record left is Homeruns and Wright trails Strawberry by 84, which appears to be reachable by July 2013. After that, its only the longevity records of games played, he trails Kranepool by over 800 games (5 1/4 seasons).
Speculation is high that Wright may be moved, but why would you ever trade someone who is on the brink of becoming your franchises best offensive player? And who for? Since 2005, Wright is 3rd in NL RBIs behind only Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols. You can’t ask for anything less than a perennial All-Star for the 27-year old Wright.
Unlike Wright, Jon Niese failed in his attempt at a Mets milestone. If he had won his last start in the opening game of the double header, he would have been the first Mets rookie pitcher with 10 wins in 25 seasons. The last was Rick Aguilera in 1985.
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Niese had plenty of opportunities to win 10 games. He was 8-5 on August 21 after winning a rain-shortened game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, he’s gone 1-5 in 7 starts with an ERA of 7.57. His ERA has jumped almost a full point since the win in Pittsburgh, from 3.33 to 4.20. To raise you ERA almost a full point this late in the season, means that guys were hitting balls to parts of the yard without your defense.
His only win came in the 18-5 drubbing of the Chicago Cubs on September 5th. After going at least 7 innings of 10 of his first 23 starts, he managed that feat only once over the last seven games.
Niese threw 173.2 innings this year, 50 innings more than he threw last year between the majors and minors. Was it just a tired arm catching up with him? Will there be any lingering effects for so many innings? Is 173 innings too much for 23-year old? Are pitchers bigger pansies than they were 25 years ago? or are we just babying them too much?
2011 will be a big season for Niese. Will be able to handle a full season of pitching, around 180 innings, or will he have arm trouble in the spring and never fully recover and get heaped onto the mountain of injured pitchers that makes up a part of Mets history.
Mets Prepare For Offseason
That the New York Mets series victory against the Philadelphia Phillies could be called the highlight of the last two months of the season is very sad. The Mets prevented the Phillies from celebrating winning the NL East in front of the Philly fans by winning two of three games.
Not a monumental achievement -its barely a moral victory- the only thing it did was get the Mets closer to 500. Finishing at 500 or better should be their only goal this year, nothing else matters now.
Its not like they beat Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, they beat Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick. The Mets are 7-1 against those two pitchers this year (and 0-5 vs Halladay & Oswalt). The Mets finished the season at 9-9 against the Phillies.
The 2010 season makes it four straight without a trip to the playoffs. Its not the longest stretch in Mets history without making the playoffs, hell its not even the longest stretch this decade. But when you share a city with the Yankees any season not making the playoffs is looked upon as a failure.
Like most Mets fans, I want a story with the headlines “Manuel & Minaya Out In New York” to appear in the papers on October 4th. Get the search for replacements started as soon as possible, the lovefest with those two is over.
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Mets fans have already made their decision on the next manager, some want Wally Backman, some want Booby Valentine back and some want Joe Torre.
Torre is clearly the wrong choice. He’s 70 and that’s barely older than any three of the 2011 Mets infielders added together. They don’t need that. If this was team full of veterans searching for an identity, he would be a possibility, but he’s got two or three years left in the tank. The Mets would need a complete overhaul to win in that amount of time.
Bobby V would be good, but I don’t think he wants the job. While clearly a good manager with an understanding of how to coach in New York, he would have to live up to the expectations of getting the Mets back to the World Series. As the last Mets manager to get them that far he wouldn’t have the players to make that happen next year, or even the year after. The only way he makes that happen is if the Mets go out and spend a ton of money, and by all accounts that is going to be the last things the Mets are going to do this off-season.
That leaves Backman. Yes, I know he’s never managed above Double-A, he might run and bunt too much and has a plethora of off field problems in his past, but he’d be a kick in the ass.
A kick in the ass is exactly what the Mets need. They need a manager who is going to say the wrong thing to the press, get tossed from a few games, take the heat off the youngsters and just allow them to play. They have become stale as week old bread when it comes to hiring a manager. There have been some real dogs in the recent past, some real snoozers. Only the above mentioned Bobby V has been fun to watch in the past 25 years. Even the term ‘Wally Ball’ sounds exciting. Oh yeah, he’d be cheap as hell.
Bring in Backman for a season, let him loose and see what happens.
Lets Go Padres, Reds, Rays, Twins, Rangers…
Now that the season is all but over, Mets fans can turn their attention to more important things.
Like rooting against the teams we don’t want to win the World Series. For me, and most Mets fans, those teams include the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees.
When those teams win the World Series it makes the failure of the Mets season even more painful. While the 2007 collapse was painful, it wasn’t as painful as 2008 because the Phillies won the Series that year, as opposed to being swept in 2007.
So, who am I rooting for to have a playoff flameout?
As always I start in the NL East, but this season its with the Phillies. Having the Phillies win the World Series would be the worst thing for Mets fans. Not only would it be their second in three year, it would also be the franchise’s third (one more than the Mets).
Now I know that the Phillies have had 70 more years of history than the Mets and they once went 65 years between winning World Series games, but those Phillies are gone. The franchise that had one winning season over a 31 year span has been replaced by one that has won 85+ games eight years in a row and been to the playoffs four years in a row. (Two things the Mets have never done.)
These Phillies have become the class of the NL East and if they win the World Series it will just cement this fact for years to come. It would take a bigger and better run from anyone else to become top dog in the East. It would also make Phillies fans even bigger asses than the Red Sox fans were after 2007.
Next on my list are the Yankees and Braves, who are 2a and 2b for ‘the next team I would hate to win it all’.
The reason for the Yankees not winning the World Series is obvious. They are the other New York team and would just be extending their domination of Major League Baseball. I have no dreams that the Mets (or any team) will overcome the Yankees as the ‘winningest team in baseball history’, but I can always hold out for the chance that the Mets take the back pages from the Yankees for a period of time.
Normally, the Braves would be at the top of the list, but the recent Phillies success and the fact that this is Bobby Cox last year have moved them down to third place on this list.
In fact, it would be nice for Cox to win it in his last year, especially if they happened to beat the Phillies and the Yankees to do it. But, they are still the Braves and have been the bane of the Mets existence for the past 20 years, so I cannot, in good faith, root for them.
That means I will root for everyone else who is the playoffs to win the World Series. The Rays, the Twins, the Rangers, the Reds and whoever wins the NL West (and possibly the NL Wild Card).
The Rays, the Rangers and the Padres or Rockies (if either make it) are the first choices to root for because of the obvious. They have never won a World Series. The Rangers and Padres foremost because, like the Mets, these 1960s expansion franchises have had ups and downs, near misses and have never won.
The Rays would be the best story. The David versus the Goliaths. The little team that did. Twenty-first in payroll, they have the misfortune of being in the same division with the two top spending teams and yet have made the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. To win it all would give hope to all the other small market teams.
The Twins, the Reds and the Giants (once again, if) would be great, if only that it wouldn’t be the Phillies, Yankees or Braves.
The Twins I would root for because of their manager Ron Gardenhire (an-ex Met). Six times in nine years he has lead the Twins to the playoffs and he’s never won a Manager of the Year award, how is this possible? Winning a World Series would validate the job he’s done in the small market of Minnesota.
The Reds winning it all would give Dusty Baker his first as manager and the teams first in 20 years. The Giants would give them their first in San Francisco and put to rest the ghosts of 2002. Both of these are stories worth rooting for.
Here’s to hoping the Phillies lose to the NL West winner, the Yankees lose to the Rangers and the Braves lose to the Reds. After that, I really don’t care what happens.
Mets Should Vow Not To Chase Cliff Lee
The New York Mets got some bad news regarding Johan Santana and his shoulder, it could be May before he starts throwing again. Not pitching, but throwing.
Mets fans should be very afraid of the operation. Shoulder surgery has fewer success stories than elbow surgeries. Some teams statistics have recovery rates at 50% for shoulder as opposed to 85% for elbow surgeries.[picappgallerysingle id="9536386"]
With news like that Mets fans will be clamoring for them to go out and get a big time pitcher, aka Cliff Lee.
Going after Lee is worst possible thing the Mets could do. Giving another pitcher a huge multi-year deal isn’t going to solve the Mets problems, in fact it may just make them worse.[picappgallerysingle id="9538698"]
The fans don’t want to hear it, but the Mets are in a rebuilding mode. Not a true rebuilding mode like the Orioles or Pirates have been in for a decade, but one that should only last a season. They have a couple of large contracts that end after 2011 that will free up more than $30 million dollars, then they could use that money to fill the holes.
By the end of 2011 the Mets will have a better idea of what kind of holes they will have to fill. Will they need a front line starter because Johan Santana hasn’t come back? Is second base still an issue for the Mets? Did Ike Davis succumb to the ‘sophomore slump’? Has Jason Bay broken double-digits in homers yet? Do we need a closer? Have any of the youngsters stepped up?
Since mid-August the Mets have paraded a plethora of young players through Citi Field, giving them opportunities to showcase their stuff. It’s nice to see the future of the team, but six weeks is not enough to get a good idea of how they will fare over a full season. The only thing it does is let us know who may be ready to compete for a job next season and who is possible trade bait.
A full season in New York will allow us to see the youngsters and their talent, or lack thereof. Whether the Mets keep them, or use them to acquire different pieces, it doesn’t matter, as long as they move forward.
The only move that the Mets definitely need to make for next season is to get rid of Jerry Manuel. A fresh start, with a younger, hungrier manager should be the number one priority for the off-season.
Santana Surgery Messes Up Mets Off-Season Plans
The season-ending surgery for New York Mets ace Johan Santana may have just altered the teams plans for the winter. The true extent of the injury is still unknown, so the date of his return is still a mystery, as is just what exactly the Mets will need to do.
“I think the most important thing here is to be ready to be 100 percent. Whether it’s April, whether it’s May, July, October … who knows?” Santana said. “Time will tell how I recover but I’ve just got to go back to being healthy and being 100 percent.”
Before Santana ended his second straight season with surgery the Mets were hoping to go into the off season just looking to add some offense. Now, it looks like pitching will also be on their wish list. Despite what Mets fans want, they cannot make a run at any high-end free agent pitcher. They just can’t afford it, so keep your moping to yourselves. The Cliff Lee train will not be stopping at Citi Field anytime soon.
Plus, the pitching has been good all year and is very cheap (except for Santana and Oliver Perez.) More importantly, NONE are eligible for free agency next year. So staying the course was a solid option for the Mets.
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With a 2011 rotation of Santana/Dickey/Pelfrey/Niese, the Mets just needed to figure out who was going to be the fifth starter. They were going to have a couple of options; Pat Misch, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, even John Maine would all be competing for the 5th spot. Now the Mets may have to open the season with two of those guys in the rotation instead of just one. That frightens me.
Depending on the extent of the injury and the recommended recovery time, the Mets may be forced to do something. Even if (worst case scenario) Santana is out all season, the last thing the Mets can afford is to add another ace (and his salary) to their payroll for 2011 which is already $120 million.
What they need is to find a serviceable arm for cheap. That means a veteran looking to make a comeback, or someone who just wants another chance.
Among the names that will be out there this winter that fulfill these qualifications are Rodrigo Lopez, Freddie Garcia, Bruce Chen, Jake Westbrook and Ben Sheets, these pitchers could be had for around $1 or $2 million for a year. Any of these guys would be a good addition to the Mets. They are cheap, they know how to pitch in the majors and there is always a chance to catch lighting in a bottle for a season. Of course, there is an equal chance that they will throw 17 innings and end up on the DL all season. For a million bucks or so, I think the Mets should take that chance.
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If the news about Santana is dire (back after the All-Star break or not at all), then expect them to go after a second tier starter. Not an ace, but a good number 2 or 3 starter.
The second tier starters available would cost the Mets more and demand multiple season contracts. If Santana is going to be out for any length of time the Mets will have no choice but to go after the likes of Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo or Carl Pavano. These guys will probably get $8-$10 million a year for three to four years. Especially Pavano, who has pitched himself into getting over paid by some team this winter, just like Jeff Suppan did after 2006.
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Whatever the Mets do, they can’t go overboard going after a big time starter who is going to cost big time money. There are bigger issues than adding another number one to the pitching staff.
Scoring runs has been a struggle for this team, so getting another bat (or two) should be the Mets priority this off season. That, and praying for the quick and speedy return of a healthy Johan Santana.
