Mets Need To Sign Dickey
The New York Mets need to sign RA Dickey now. Four years, $16 million dollars.
In his limited time in the Mets rotation he has been the Mets second best pitcher and, to a lesser extent, a godsend. When the season opened Dickey wasn’t even on the 25-man roster, he was in Buffalo.
When he made his debut on May 19th in the rotation he was just supposed to be a stop gap while Jon Niese and John Maine were on the DL and Oliver Perez was working things out in the bullpen.
Only one of those three returned to the rotation and Dickey pitched exceptionally well, winning six of his first seven starts. He’s gone from ‘who is this guy?’ to ‘thank you baseball gods for being so kind to us.’
Am I over reacting? Do you think that Maine or Perez would put up numbers like 10-6 with an 2.91 ERA? I don’t think so. Having Dickey pitch all these innings also kept the Mets from giving more starts to Fernando Nieve and moving Jenrry Mejia into the rotation sooner. Two more things that Mets fans didn’t want. Firstly, because Nieve isn’t that good yet and secondly, Mejia is too young.
So why should Mets ownership give a 35-year old that kind of money, for that length?
Because he’s going to be a bargain by the end of the contract, even at the age of 39.
This year is no fluke, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Still new to the knuckler (he started throwing it full time in 2006), Dickey is perfecting the pitch and he’s only going to gain more control over it as he gets older. Which means that he’s only going to get better as he ages, like a good bottle of scotch.
Knuckleballers stay effective longer than other pitchers, due to the lesser strain they put on their arms, so offering a four year contract to him is a no-brainer. I’ve heard multiple commentators say something to the effect that a 35-year old knuckleball pitcher is only 27 or 28 in pitching years. Just look at some of the other recent knuckleballers; all of them (Tim Wakefield, Charlie Hough, Phil Niekro) pitched well in their late 30s, and Hough and Niekro pitched until they were able to join AARP.
Here are their numbers from age 36-39:
Tim Wakefield (2003-2006) 46-40, 4.40 ERA, 756.0 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9
Charlie Hough (1984-1987) 65-53, 3.66 ERA, 1032.0 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 1.0 HR/9
Phil Niekro (1975-1978) 67-64, 3.36 ERA, 1211.0 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9
Now, you can’t expect Dickey to average the 250-300 innings pitched that Hough and Niekro did, that was a different time in baseball, when the complete game had gone the way of the dodo. Niekro averaged 16(!?!) complete games a year during those four seasons. Dickey may complete that many games in four seasons. Also, those two pitched on some horrible teams. The Rangers averaged 88 losses and the Braves 95 during those years for Hough and Niekro.
Wakefield was a stint on the 60-day DL in 2006 away from averaging 200 innings a season. His increased ERA and HR/9 can be blamed on the era baseball was in during his late 30s. His numbers are a better indication of what to expect from a knuckleball pitcher now. Although Dickey will probably improve on those numbers just by pitching in Citi Field, rather than Fenway Park.
Even though he made his debut in 2001, Dickey still isn’t eligible for free agency and the Mets would be smart to lock him up for a couple of years on the cheap. And yes, $4 million dollars is still cheap for someone who can give you 200 innings and 12-14 wins. He is also the Mets best hitting pitcher, and if this was Tony LaRussa’s team, he would be hitting 8th ahead of Ruben Tejada.
Mets fans want them to go big in the off-season and make a run at Cliff Lee (who is 10-8, 3.37 ERA this season), but he’s going to cost at least three times the four million they could get Dickey for, and they don’t have that kind of money to spend on a pitcher. Besides, its not the pitching that is costing the Mets this season, its their inability to score runs, so a bat (or two) should be their priority this off-season.
Well, that, and signing a certain 35-year old knuckleballer to a multi-year deal.
Mets Begin 2011 Auditions In Chicago
The New York Mets weekend was much more than two losses and an offensive explosion. It was an extended audition for the 2011 team.
The Mets starters against the Chicago Cubs, RA Dickey, Jenrry Mejia and Jon Niese appear to be leading candidates for the rotation next year. Dickey and Niese have pitched well all season, each of them throwing 1-hitters, and should each win at 10 games barring a September collapse. They have pitched well enough to lock up the 3rd & 4th spots in next years rotation.
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Dickey has been the real surprise. He started the season in Buffalo, made his way to Flushing and has pitched himself into a multi-year contract. He leads the team in ERA and is 8th in the league, ahead of Mets ace Johan Santana.
The Mets need to sign him to a three- or four-year contract somewhere in the five- or six-million dollar range. He’ll give the Mets something they haven’t had in a couple of years, an innings eater in the rotation. [Think Steve Trachsel, but better].
Knuckleballers are notorious for being able to throw (on average) more often than others because of the lesser strain they put on their pitching arms. Even with the ‘hard’ knuckler that Dickey throws he’s been able to pitch almost 7 innings per start for the Mets. At his 2010 rate, he’d be able to throw 215-220 innings in 33-34 starts next season.
Niese has also been a surprise. He should get close to 175 innings pitched (unless the Mets shut him down) and be well worth the $400k the Mets gave him this year. He’s also going to be locked up cheaply for the next two seasons as he’s not even eligible for arbitration until 2013.[picappgallerysingle id="9369481"]
He has pitched evenly all season, never losing more than two consecutive games. Half of his starts have been quality starts, an excellent number for a young pitcher, especially one taken in the seventh round. His major league career mirrors Mike Pelfrey’s and I wouldn’t mind if he continued on the Pelfrey path. They each pitched a few games during their first two years in the majors, then took off in the third season, both in quality and quantity of innings pitched. The only things the Mets hope is that Niese doesn’t have a relapse in season four like Pelfrey did in 2009, when he went from (13-11, 3.72 ERA) to (10-12, 5.03 ERA).
Mejia is the question mark. He’s only thrown 32 innings in the big leagues this season, not nearly enough to know how the 20-year old would stand up over a full season. The majority of his innings have been in relief and his single start is the only game in which he’s faced a hitter more than once in a game. He never faced more than nine batters in anyone of his relief appearances so no one ever got a second look at him.
Rookie pitchers are always judged more on how they handle the league their second time through and Mejia will not have the chance to do that this season. He might get another four or five starts on the season, which probably means another 25-30 innings. Not enough to get a good read on his abilities at the major league level. What it does do for Mejia is that it gives him a leg up for next season, as long as he pitches well.
As for the position players on the team auditioning for 2011, only Ike Davis has played enough to secure a spot for next season. Davis will probably lead this team in walks and finish second in homers and RBIs, great numbers for a 23-year old rookie. He will most likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting, which seemed destined for Jason Heyward coming out of spring training. Despite not getting any love for the ROY award he has just 12 fewer total bases then the Braves rookie star.
The rest of the players who saw time during the Cubs series are still in the process of getting used to the major league level and we will need more time to make a decision about next year. When you look at the opening day lineup and the lineups used against the Cubs there are only two names that were similar. David Wright and Luis Castillo, and neither played all three games against the Cubs. Even Angel Pagan wasn’t in the opening day lineup, it was Gary Matthews Jr who played centerfield on opening day.
Among all the new faces that played against the Cubs, only Chris Carter, Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada will have more than 100 plate appearances by the end of September.
The first two of them are having good seasons, but Carter’s numbers are somewhat skewed. He has appeared in 78 games, but only has 145 plate appearances as he is usually the first lefty bat off the bench. He also gets yanked for a defensive replacement in late innings, having finished only a third of the games he starts. Carter will be in the outfield mix for 2011, either in a platoon or as a 4th outfielder.
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Thole, on the other hand, in my opinion, has won at least a share of the catching job for next season. The Mets got lucky this year and were able to piece together what was probably the oldest/least mobile catching platoon ever in Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, after the man they really wanted (Bengie Molina) got away. Next year it will be the complete opposite with a pair of youngsters behind the plate. Thole’s batting average is more than one could have hoped for a mid-season rookie replacement and if he had enough plate appearances he would lead the team in on-base percentage. Even his defense has been above average, throwing out 42% of runners.
Ruben Tejada is being every opportunity to learn to hit major league pitching in the majors. Don’t be fooled by his 5 RBI explosion, he more resembles the player under the Mendoza line than the homerun hitting/run producing shortstop who was in the lineup on Sunday. If the Mets had more bats, than a middle infielder hitting under .200 would be acceptable, but this Mets lineup needs everyone to produce to win and, right now, the 20-year old rookie doesn’t have the bat to deserve a starting job next season.
Every other hitter getting a look during September will still be a question mark come spring. The final month of the season is never a good time to get an accurate measure of how a player will do over the long haul. Once the rosters expand and teams drop from contention, more youngsters get playing time diluting the talent level enough to keep from getting clear read on players.
With 2010 all but over, the Mets are clearly in rebuilding mode and expect the youngsters to play more often as the Mets look forward to 2011. Don’t forget its only 167 days until spring training.
Mets Avoid Sweep, May Lose Santana
You knew that Johan Santana was going to win tonight. The Mets were coming off a loss and he pitches much better when trying to start a winning streak, rather than keeping one going.
His last three starts have all followed wins and Santana dropped all three. In the previous seven games in which he followed a Mets loss, he was 5-1 (the team was 6-1); so a win tonight was a no-brainer.
That he would do it throwing only five innings and the fewest pitches (65) in a game this season was the real surprise. Santana left the game with what is being described as a pectoral strain. Although no one is exactly quite sure what the problem is.
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“He felt his shoulder wasn’t right. Somebody said pec. I don’t know. I’m really not at ease,” Dan Warthen, Mets pitching coach said. The Mets are going to be overly protective of their star, especially since yesterday was the one-year anniversary of his elbow surgery.
“You never want to see a guy get taken out of the game due to injury,” third baseman David Wright said.
Santana (11-9) and four relievers helped the Mets avoid a four game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves as the Mets took down one of the NLs best pitchers in Tim Hudson (15-6), who hadn’t lost in his past eight starts. Hisanori Takahashi pitched a scoreless 9th inning for his 3rd save in as many chances.
The offense also chipped in with four runs. That might not sound like a lot, but it was the first time in 14 games against the Braves that the Mets scored more than three runs. David Wright hit his 22nd homerun and he cemented his place at the Mets hitting star of the season. He is on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBIs.
The victory for the Mets ace allowed him to avoid losing four straight starts since May/June of 2004. The five inning victory was the first of its kind for Santana since July 9, 2008.
The good news for the Mets is that they do not have to return to Turner Field this season, a place where they are 38-78 since it opened. The Mets continue their road trip by heading to Chicago to play the Cubs, a team they last faced way back in April when the season still held potential.
Mets August Recap
So, how was your August?
If you were the New York Mets, it wasn’t the best month of the season, and amazingly so, it wasn’t even their worst month. In fact it was right in the middle, third best or third worst, depending on how you think this season is going.
The Mets continued their trend of playing badly in months with 31 days (33-50) and great in months with 30 days (32-17), so September should be great.
The good thing about August was that the Mets never lost three games in a row. Sadly, they lost two games in a row on five separate occasions, only winning two in a row twice.
Team Offense (D-)
The Mets were dead last in runs scored, average, homers, total bases, slugging and a half dozen other stats. They were just dead last in runs scored, they scored 20 fewer runs than the next closest team.
The Mets averaged just 2.8 runs a game for August. How they won 12 games is something less than miraculous. They were only shut out once, but scored 1 run eight different times. The Mets never hit more than a single homerun in any game. There was really little the Mets right all month on the offensive side of the ball and it showed.
Hitting Star of the Month – no one
No one single Met deserves this award, so no one gets it. Only Angel Pagan had 10 or more RBIs, only Jose Reyes had more hits than games played and only David Wright (4) and Jeff Francoeur (2) had multiple homeruns all month. It was a bad month all around for the offense and further puts a stamp on the reason why this team is suffering.
Team Pitching (B+)
Fourth best ERA in the month of August (3.50). The three best starters Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana and RA Dickey threw 121.1 innings in 17 starts (more than 7 IPs per start) and had a 2.60 ERA as a group, yet they went 7-7. The other two Mets who started, Jon Niese and Pat Misch went 1-7, to balance the good with their brand of crap.
The pen’s ERA was 4.13, the highest since May, but thankfully, the relievers weren’t called on much. They pitched their fewest total innings in any month, just 61 innings, less than three a game. The pen was helped out by five complete games, three from Johan Santana.
With their closer out for the season, they had two other pitchers record saves. Hisanori Takahashi was one of those and he had the best month of any reliever. He allowed just two runs in 11.1 innings and picked up a pair of saves.
Pitcher Star of the Month – Mike Pelfrey
The Big Pelf went 3-2 in his five starts in August with an ERA of 1.82. He dropped his yearly ERA by almost a half a point and went 7 or more innings in his last four starts. After his horrible July, August was a nice turn around for Pelfrey and put him back on track for 15 or more wins and 200+ innings.[picappgallerysingle id="9555856"]
Hitting both of those milestones is going to cost the Mets. Pelfrey is in the final year of his original contract and will be arbitration eligible this winter. The Mets will have a chance to sign him contract, probably only three years, as he could become a free agent in 2014. Look for the Mets to offer $8-$10 million a year.
